Antibacterial sales to decline

A number of new and expensive hospital brands targeting serious infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria, particularly MRSA, will launch over the next decade. These will generate revenues totalling nearly US$2bn by 2019, according to independent market analyst Datamonitor.

However, the forecasted upside provided by these pipeline products will be insufficient to offset the market decline caused by genericisation, safety concerns and resistance of the leading antibacterial brands. As a result, total antibacterial sales will decline from US$19.62bn in 2009 to US$16.41bn in 2019.

Richard Phelps, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor, comments: “A number of premium-priced hospital brands will be launched over the next decade, driven by the high unmet need for new drugs to treat serious infections caused by MRSA and other dangerous Gram-positive bacteria.

“These include: Forest Laboratories', AstraZeneca's, and Takeda’s Teflaro (ceftaroline); Novartis's and Paratek Pharmaceuticals’ PTK 0796; and Trius Therapeutics’ torezolid.

“Of the pipeline drugs, Teflaro (ceftaroline), with bactericidal activity against MRSA and broad-spectrum pathogen coverage, and torezolid, with once-daily, oral dosing for MRSA infections, currently have the best commercial outlook.”

According to Datamonitor, Levaquin will hold on to its market-leading position in 2019, principally due to its continued popularity, its broad coverage of respiratory and genitourinary infections, and the strong sales and marketing power of its marketing companies, combined with the genericisation of many of the other biggest-selling antibacterial brands.

In Japan, the antibacterial market will decrease due to the genericisation of market leaders and a decline in new product launches. Total sales will decrease from US$3.56bn in 2009 to US$3.00bn in 2019.

Richard comments: “The Japanese market will see generic erosion of a number of leading brands that are either not marketed in, or only generate very small sales in, the other major markets. In line with historical trends, there will be fewer new antibacterial launches in Japan over the next decade, with many new brands not launching in this market or seeing a time lag of several years compared to market entry in the US and often the five major EU markets. For example, Cubist, Novartis and Merck & Co.’s Cubicin (daptomycin), launched in 2003 in the US, is unlikely to hit the Japanese market before 2012.”