Diabetes market growing, obesity market shrinking: analysts

The market for antidiabetics is predicted to be worth $37 billion in 2018, up from $20 billion in 2008, offering pharmaceutical companies tremendous commercial opportunities, says analysts, the Datamonitor Group.

“Safety scares, such as that with Avandia (rosgiltazone; GlaxoSmithKline) in 2007, coupled with re-evaluation of known side effects and the risk of hypoglycemia associated with sulfonylurea use have all combined to highlight the need for new therapies with clean side effect profiles for type 2 diabetes,” says Dr Nick Karachalias, lead healthcare analyst at Datamonitor.

Datamonitor expects drugs that target the incretin system are set to be the big new mechanism and dipeptidyl peptidase-IV (DPP-IV) inhibitors are likely to account for the largest percentage of the growing market. Glucagon-like-1 (GLP-1) agonists will have a smaller but still significant impact on the diabetes market than DPP-IV inhibitors, despite greater efficacy and associated weight loss due to their injection based dosing.

In contrast, the market opportunities in obesity will be only $600 million, despite the clear link between the two diseases. This is due to the perception that obesity is a lifestyle issue as well as the limitations and side effects of existing drugs plus the lack of reimbursement available from healthcare providers.

“There is a certain irony that obesity, as one of the main drivers for the type 2 diabetes pharmaceutical market growth, is not going to be addressed on a large scale by the pharmaceutical market. The dieting and personal fitness industries are just too big,” said Karachalias in a release.