Sales of generic HIV drugs to surge as patents expire

Sales of generic HIV drugs will double to more than $US1.2 billion by 2019 making up 10 percent of the entire retroviral market, according to industry analysts Datamonitor.

Key factors driving the growth it said include rising populations, longer life expectancy for HIV patients and wider nets for testing. By contrast, Datamonitor said that patent expiries along with increased pressure on governments to rein in health costs could would see the market for existing HIV drugs halved to about $US6 billion by 2019.

Pipeline drugs would likely experience the best growth with the group predicting CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 172 percent between the 2011 launch of Tibotec Pharmaceuticals/Johnson & Johnson’s rilpivirine and the end of the forecast period.

“We expect sales of current pipeline products to reach over $7 billion,” said Datamonitor healthcare analyst Nele Jensen.

He added that the market was now awash with effective HIV treatment options, meaning that convenience has become an increasingly important factor for drug companies.

“Consequently, the development of pipeline cross-class fixed dose combinations (FDCs) will be the key strategy to ensuring market share for HIV drug developers over the next decade.”

In fact, Datamonitor predicts that between now and 2019 three of the top four selling HIV drugs will be FDCs together accounting for around 49 percent of the seven key markets.