Wales, papal mortality and the game they play in heaven

Researchers led by Gareth Payne from the department of clinical neurophysiology at University Hospital Wales in Cardiff have investigated the claim that when Wales wins the grand slam in rugby – defeating England, Scotland, Ireland, France and, more latterly, Italy – the pope pops his clogs.

And when Wales is really good, such as in the 1970s when led by legends like JPR Williams and Gareth Edwards, the team manages to see off two pontiffs in the same year.

Payne and colleagues have investigated both parts of this claim, which they dub the special and general theories of papal rugby.

“The special theory indicates the direction of the effect: when Wales wins a grand slam, the chance of a papal death in that year increases,” they write in the special Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal.

“The general theory suggests a dose-response relation: when Wales performs particularly well, the expected number of papal deaths increases.”

The team used logic regression, Poisson regression and measured the ratio of points difference to games played to assess both theories, starting in 1883 when the first home nations competition began. France joined the competition in 1910 and Italy in 2000.

Of the eight pontiffs who have died in the period, five of them did so in grand slam years – once when Scotland won, once when England won, and three times when Wales won. The legendary 1978 Wales team saw off both Pope Paul VI and Pope John Paul I.

Benedict XVI’s predecessor John Paul II also died in a Wales grand slam year, 2005.

Ominously for relations between the two dominant sects within Christianity, the researchers also found that each papal death occurred when a predominantly Protestant nation – England, Scotland or Wales – won the grand slam, but it has never occurred when a predominantly Catholic country – Ireland, France or Italy – has won.

(And Italy aren’t ever likely to if they continue to appoint southern hemisphere coaches – namely New Zealand’s John Kirwan and South Africa’s Nick Mallet, who are just playing silly buggers with them – or when they continue to offend God by electing Silvio Berlusconi as prime minister.)

So should Benedict and his medical team be concerned, considering he is 81 and, spookily, that Wales achieved a grand slam this year?

Perhaps, the researchers conclude. While there was no evidence of a link between papal deaths and any home nation grand slams, there was statistical evidence to support an association between good Welsh performances and a bigger chance of papal demise.

After intense statistical analysis, involving some very pretty graphs, the research team can only conclude that the special theory of papal rugby is nothing more than an urban myth.

“This comes as something of a relief, as we are at a loss to see how the events could be linked, especially given the continuing rapprochement between Catholic and Protestant churches,” they say.

Concerning the general theory, however, and especially given the performance of Wales this year, they recommend that the Vatican medical team take special care of the pontiff this Christmas.